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Fed officials showed no signs of backing down from their hawkish rhetoric, with Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker saying overnight that the central bank is not done with raising its short-term rate target amid very high levels of inflation.
Money markets are close to fully priced for 75 basis point rate hikes in both November and December. The currency pair is extremely sensitive to changes in U. The battered Japanese currency first weakened past the symbolic level late Thursday afternoon in Tokyo, but strengthened sharply from an interim low of Fresh threats of intervention made by Japanese policymakers have kept investors on high alert, although there has been no news of further action since the Ministry of Finance's dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention last month.
You either have yield curve control lifted, or concerted action," said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. Story continues The U. This may have in part reflected expectations for the terms of trade, which for a time remained at elevated levels even when the actual terms of trade had declined. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank eased monetary policy from late in response to the prevailing weaker economic conditions in Australia. However, from around , the Bank was balancing the case for a faster return of inflation to the target range by lowering the cash rate further, against the medium-term risks associated with an increase in what were already high levels of household debt.
Over time, however, the evidence shifted. It became clearer that, even with the easing in monetary policy that had occurred, there was still spare capacity in the economy, which was weighing on wages growth and inflation. A further easing in policy would be needed to absorb that capacity and for inflation to rise. Accordingly, the cash rate was lowered further through and the Australian dollar depreciated to its lowest level in over a decade.
The US dollar, the Australian dollar and inflation Over the course of this year, the US dollar has appreciated significantly against the currencies of both advanced and emerging economies Graph 4. The 12 per cent appreciation of the US dollar in trade-weighted terms, is consistent with the rapid rise in US interest rates relative to those of many other economies, including Australia. Graph 4 The depreciation of currencies against the US dollar will add some pressure to already high rates of inflation in a wide range of advanced and emerging economies via a rise in the prices of imported goods and services.
This is because much of global trade is invoiced in US dollar terms. Two other points should also be made. First, higher interest rates in the United States will, in time, help to stem the growth of US demand for goods and services. So an easing in demand pressures in the United States will help to ease a noticeable portion of global demand. Hence, we could expect those prices to decline, or at least rise less rapidly, over time.
We can actually see that effect quite clearly and in very quick time with homogeneous goods like commodities that are traded on global spot markets. Take gold and oil as examples. The daily changes in the US dollar prices of those commodities typically have a strong negative correlation with the change in the value of the US dollar Graph 5. That is, when the US dollar goes up, prices of those commodities come down somewhat on average.
Graph 5 While this response may take more time to play out in markets for goods and services that are not as homogenous and not traded on global spot markets, the same sort of adjustment is likely to occur for a broad range of traded items. Even so, for many emerging market economies, there is likely to be a sizeable pass-through of the depreciation of their currencies against the US dollar to domestic inflationary pressures.
This reflects the tendency of emerging market economies to have a larger share of tradable goods in their consumption baskets compared with advanced economies. A number of economies — both advanced and emerging — have experienced broad-based exchange rate depreciations. So those economies will tend to experience more notable increases in their import prices as a result.
This is in contrast to economies whose currency depreciations have been more narrowly based. The Australian dollar is in that latter camp. While it has depreciated significantly against the US dollar — falling by 14 per cent this year — in trade-weighted terms, the Australian dollar has depreciated by only 2 per cent over the same period Graph 6.
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